Update: Wagner PMC Betrays the Kremlin; Rebels Withdraw
A coup promises political shift in Russia
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June 24, 2023
In Unprecedented Betrayal, Wagner Turns on Russian MoD, Inciting Unrest and Clashes in Southern Russia…
Analysis
Report Updated, June 24, 3:00pm EST.
According to Wagner’s channels, at approximately 1pm Eastern United States time, the Wagner agency chose to turn its forces around:
“Understanding all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be red, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan,” Wagner channels stated, as has been translated here into English.
Wagner’s withdraw highlights the delicate nature of internal Russian politics in the wake of a prolonged “special military campaign,” in Ukraine.
In an unexpected escalation, Russian President Vladimir Putin has harshly condemned the armed rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group, a prominent private military company in Russia, describing it as a "betrayal".
The Russian leader vowed "harsh punishment" for Wagner Group, as, on June 24, rebels made their way for the Kremlin. In preparation, Moscow created "checkpoints" to stall any anticipated rebel onslaught, the Associated Press reported.
Southern governors, including Alexander Gusev of Voronezh, have confirmed violent confrontations between regular military forces and Wagner fighters within Russian territory. At the time of this report, the Wagner Group rebels were "barreling" toward Moscow.
Putin, in his first public address regarding the crisis on Saturday morning, pledged to suppress what he labeled as Prigozhin's "treachery".
In a televised speech, Putin condemned Prigozhin's actions:
"Any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood and to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia and to our people," said the Russian leader, as he called for the unity of all forces.
The Russian leader accused Prigozhin and his company of "extravagant ambitions and personal interests leading to treason," referring to the preparation of an armed rebellion and the use of terrorist methods. Putin vowed inevitable punishment for those who participated in such actions, both legally and in the court of public opinion.
Adding fuel to the fire, on the previous day, Prigozhin, had openly declared war against the defense ministry, encouraging all Russians to support his 25,000 fighters in their efforts to "stop" and topple Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other high-ranking commanders. Putin, in response, criticized this move as a "stab in the back of our country and our people." In an effort to crush the Wagner rebellion, Russian authorities reportedly called for Prigozhin's arrest.
In a defiant counter to Putin's heated speech, Prigozhin released a statement via Telegram, rejecting the president's assessment of betrayal of the motherland and refusing to capitulate.
Prigozhin's Telegram release came as an audio message:
"Regarding the ‘betrayal of the motherland,’ the president is deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our Motherland, we fought and are fighting, all the fighters of the PMC Wagner," the Wagner Group said in an audio recording. Prigozhin had reportedly seiged "two cities" in Russia following the uprising.
The audio messages mark the first time Prigozhin has directly criticized Putin, a stark departure from his past strategy of avoiding any direct references to the Russian leader in his criticisms of military planning and Kremlin decision-making.
At the time of this report, Wagner forces now control facilities in Rostov and Voronezh, and the M4 highway has been disrupted, as rebels reportedly "defy" threats over their mutiny. Civilians have been ordered to evacuate all military command centers in the Wagner-held city center of Rostov-on-Don.
In his response, Prigozhin reiterated the defense ministry's "corruption, deceit, and bureaucracy" while emphasizing that his fighters are patriotic and fulfilling their duty. As a sign of escalating tensions, the military and security services in Moscow and other major cities have been ordered by the Kremlin to secure the streets and enhance their presence.
The ramifications of Wagner's rebellion against the Russian MoD are profound and could potentially destabilize Putin's long-standing hold on power. With Wagner's considerable influence and extensive network, this internal conflict could lead to a significant shift in the balance of power within the country. It might also spur other internal factions to challenge the Kremlin, leading to a potential period of instability and unrest.
Internationally, this rebellion could provide an opening for Russia's adversaries to exploit the country's internal divisions, weakening Russia's position on the global stage. It also raises questions about the future of Russia's foreign policy, particularly in regions where Wagner has been active.
Despite the consequences, Putin's resolve seems unshaken. However, how this crisis unfolds will undoubtedly determine the future direction of Russia and its standing in the international community.
Wagner's "armed rebellion," against the Russian Federation is a pivotal moment that could reshape not just the political landscape of Russia, but also the dynamics of global power and influence.
In the midst of this, the people of Russia are caught in the crossfire, their lives disrupted by the power struggle between two powerful entities. The unfolding situation is a stark reminder that the actions of a few can drastically affect the lives of many, underlining the importance of stability and unity in a nation's leadership.
Looking ahead, the future remains uncertain. The escalating tension between Putin and the Wagner Group has put Russia on a knife's edge, and the world watches on, anxious and unsure of what will happen next. The implications of this rebellion, both domestically and internationally, will continue to reverberate across the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
The situation in Russia serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance of power in any nation. When that balance is disrupted, the fallout can be unpredictable and far-reaching. As the world continues to watch the unfolding drama, it is clear that the ultimate consequences of this rebellion are yet to be seen. One thing is certain: this is a turning point in Russia's history that could redefine its future and its role on the global stage.
In the end, the resolution of this crisis will not only shape Russia's destiny but will also have a profound impact on the global political landscape. Only time will tell how this power struggle will end and what its lasting impact will be. For now, the world watches and waits, as the future of Russia hangs in the balance.