The Al-Fashaga Powder Keg: Escalating Tensions and Broader Implications in the Horn of Africa
(AMISOM Photo / Ilyas Ahmed)
On April 19, 2023, Ethiopian forces launched an attack on Al-Fashaga Al-Saghra, deploying tanks, armored vehicles, and a large infantry presence, as reported by Sudani News. The Sudanese army claims to have successfully repelled the offensive.
Sudanese Armed Forces, stationed along the country's eastern border, have been monitoring suspicious activity among Ethiopian forces in the region. They report observing reconnaissance and surveillance operations conducted by Ethiopian troops in the area. The escalating conflict underscores the increasing tension between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed al-Fashaga region.
Sudan faces internal strife as the Sudanese Army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, grapples with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group led by Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan, known as “Hemedti”. Many Sudanese are fleeing as refugees to escape the violence.
A Historical Flashpoint in the Horn of Africa
Map of Al Fashaga district of Sudan (Wikimedia Commons)
The al-Fashaga dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan dates back to the 1902 agreement between Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II and the British colonial authorities in Sudan. The 260 sq km area, known for its fertile land, has been claimed by both countries, leading to disputes and tensions over the years.
In 2007, Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to let both populations cultivate the land, but changes in governments and rising ethnic tensions have brought the issue back to the forefront. In 2018, both countries experienced political shifts that offered hope for more democratic, civilian administrations and improved regional stability. However, the Chatham Group warned that unresolved border disputes could threaten stability, economic growth, and humanitarian efforts.
In 2020, Sudan took control of al-Fashaga while Ethiopia was engaged in the Tigray conflict. Although Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced an agreement to resolve the territorial dispute, tensions escalated as both countries accused each other of violence and military actions in the region.
Currently, Sudan is facing internal turmoil as the Sudanese Army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, engages in an armed power struggle against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group led by Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan. This conflict has resulted in casualties and forced many Sudanese to flee as refugees seeking safety.
The longstanding al-Fashaga dispute and its impact on regional stability underline the importance of addressing and resolving border disputes in a timely and diplomatic manner to prevent further conflicts and humanitarian crises.
Key Players and Regional Instability
The primary actors in the conflict are the Sudanese army and Ethiopian Special Forces, with involvement from Amhara militias (FANO) and Ethiopian gangs (Shafta gangs). Al-Shafta gangs have reportedly driven Sudanese farmers from their land, seized property, stolen livestock, and committed murder and kidnapping for ransom.
The conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia over the disputed al-Fashaga farmland has implications beyond the Horn of Africa. Sudan, the third-largest country in Africa, is in a volatile region that borders the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa. Its strategic location and agricultural wealth have drawn the interest of countries seeking to expand their influence in the region.
Ethiopia, also grappling with internal fighting and political instability, is directly involved in the conflict with Sudan. Eritrea, a small nation with a large military and an authoritarian leader, has shifted its stance from engaging in war with Ethiopia to supporting Addis Ababa. Egypt backs Khartoum, and some observers view the conflict as a proxy war between Egypt and Ethiopia. Isayas Afeworki of Eritrea is also believed by some to be behind the region's turmoil.
Multiple countries, including Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, are vying for influence in Sudan. The Russian Wagner Group has been accused of exploiting Sudan's resources and providing support to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces. Reports suggest Sudan is open to Russia establishing a base near the Red Sea.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is another point of contention in the region. As Africa's largest hydroelectric project, it has caused tension between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. While Ethiopia views the GERD as a symbol of cooperation, Sudan accuses Ethiopia of violating an earlier agreement with Egypt. Sudan opposes Ethiopia's unilateral attempts to fill the dam, fearing water insecurity.
A satellite image of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (Photo: SentinelHub)
With concerns that Egypt and Sudan may go to war over the water supply, Ethiopia has attempted to assuage their fears. However, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has emphasized that Egypt's share of the Nile waters is "untouchable" and warned of unimaginable instability if Ethiopia fills the reservoir without an agreement.
The notion of local, internal, or regional disputes is misleading in this context. When strategically important countries in Eastern Africa experience significant internal conflicts, the entire world should pay attention to the potential global consequences.