Russia's Avdiivka Offensive Expected To Fail, Says Ukrainian Commander
Commander Believes Russia Will Fair Breakthrough Attempt
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October 17, 2023
It has been 600 days since Moscow initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and it seems that one of Russia's most significant offensives in recent months is faltering. The town of Avdiivka, north of Donetsk, has been the target of a Russian offensive, but Ukrainian Colonel Dmytro Lysyuk, the leader of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade, believes that the Russian Army will not achieve the breakthrough it seeks.
In an interview with The Guardian, Col. Lysyuk expressed confidence that the Russian offensive in Avdiivka would be unsuccessful. However, he acknowledged that Ukraine's own counteroffensive is also facing challenges.
The ongoing heavy fighting in Avdiivka has revealed that Russia has already suffered significant losses while making only limited progress. Thousands of Russian soldiers, supported by heavy armor, artillery, and attack helicopters, are involved in the offensive. The operation aims to encircle a pocket of Ukrainian troops.
Taking control of Avdiivka and its surrounding territory would enable Russia to link up with its held territories surrounding Donetsk on the eastern Donbas front. This strategic move would strengthen Russia's position in the region.
According to reports, Russia deployed at least three battalions, consisting of 2,000-3,000 troops each, for the assault on Avdiivka. Accounts from the area, supported by videos, suggest that Russia has incurred substantial losses in terms of tanks, artillery, and personnel. However, these claims have yet to be independently verified.
The situation in Avdiivka is crucial for both sides. It not only represents a symbolic and strategic location but also holds significant economic importance. Avdiivka is home to a major coke plant, which provides electricity and heat to the region. The conflict has disrupted the plant's operations, leaving thousands of civilians struggling in freezing temperatures.
The international community closely monitors the situation in Ukraine, particularly in Avdiivka. Calls for a peaceful resolution and a renewed commitment to the Minsk agreements have intensified. The Minsk agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015, aimed to cease hostilities and establish a lasting peace in the region. However, numerous violations of the agreements have hindered progress.
As the military situation in Avdiivka remains uncertain, civilians continue to bear the brunt of the conflict. Humanitarian organizations are working tirelessly to provide aid to those affected by the fighting.
The outcome of the Russian offensive in Avdiivka will undoubtedly impact the wider conflict between Ukraine and Russia, researchers with Institute of War assessed on October 15. The failure of the offensive could undermine Russia's military ambitions and potentially pave the way for renewed diplomatic efforts. However, it is essential to remember that Ukraine's own counteroffensive faces its own challenges, highlighting the complexity and volatility of the situation.
The Russian offensive in Avdiivka appears to be faltering, with reports of significant losses. While this is a positive development for Ukraine, the overall conflict remains far from resolved. The international community must continue to support efforts to find a peaceful solution and alleviate the suffering of civilians caught in the crossfire.