Russian-Iranian Alliance Amidst the Russo-Ukrainian War
Russia and Iran Ties "Warming"
Overt Operator
July 24, 2023
The recent escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has thrust the complex political stage of Eurasia under the spotlight, revealing unexpected twists and turns.
A curious subplot of this grand drama that has emerged pertains to the unanticipated military and economic cooperation between two key players on the Eurasian Grand Chessboard, Russia and Iran. This newly forged bond, amidst the bleak canvas of warfare, raises compelling questions: Is it a deeper strategic alignment or a fleeting tactical partnership borne out of convenience?
Delving into historical relations, Russia and Iran have navigated the turbulent currents of geopolitics since their diplomatic bond was established in 1521. The ensuing centuries saw an intricate mesh of political, economic, and cultural ties grow between the two states, peppered with periods of bitter competition, proxy wars, and direct conflicts.
The two state's relationship was strained during the Cold War, when Iran, under the Pahlavi dynasty, allied with the US against Soviet Communism. But even then, a pattern of cooperation marked by shared opposition to the US and overlapping interests began to emerge in the 1980s.
The end of the Iraqi–Iranian War in 1988 saw Russia evolve into a significant military supplier to Iran. From bolstering Iran's nuclear program in the early 1990s to resisting the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Russia's relations with Iran have been underscored by cooperative tendencies.
Nevertheless, their relationship has often faltered on the brink of a full-fledged alliance, marked by disagreements such as Russia's support for UN sanctions on Iran and Iran's opposition to Russian actions in Syria.
The recent Russian-Ukrainian war has further complicated this intricate web of relationships. While Iran has refrained from explicitly supporting Russia's actions, a noticeable upgrade in political ties between Moscow and Tehran has surfaced since the war's outbreak in February 2022.
Additionally, Iran's decision to abstain from joining Western-imposed sanctions on Russia has significantly boosted its bilateral trade.
This new economic synergy has also reignited Russia's interest in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a project that holds considerable geo-economic value for both sanctions-stricken nations. An agreement to finance the construction of the Rasht–Astara line and invest $3.5 billion in revamping Iranian infrastructure by 2030 further testifies to this burgeoning economic collaboration.
Perhaps the most striking manifestation of this newfound cooperation lies in the realm of military cooperation. As the Russian Armed Forces grappled with a shortage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Iran emerged as a significant supplier, delivering over 1,700 UAVs since August 2022. The exchange extends to artillery shells, ammunition, and potentially high-end military equipment. The deepening of military ties has even impacted Israel's decision to supply Ukraine with equipment, a cautionary move against their technology falling into Iranian hands.
Despite these developments, however, the elusive full-fledged alliance remains out of reach. The divergent interests of Russia and Iran, seen in their handling of conflicts in the Middle East, South Caucasus, and Central Asia, pose a significant roadblock. While the Russo-Ukrainian war has intensified their ties, it seems unlikely to forge a full-fledged de jure military-political alliance soon.