Commentary
This is a developing story.
The last few days have been extraordinary for anyone that follows world events and geopolitics. Yevgeny Prigozhin began his march towards Russia on June 23, 2023.
The below analysis provides background, a synopsis and possible implications regarding the events involving Yevgeny Prigozhin and Vladimir Putin.
Questions For Every Question
Speculation and political analysis over the state of Russian infighting has added unanswered questions for every question. Before we address what’s happened, we should take a brief look at the man behind the latest events in Eastern Europe.
Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Yevgeny Prigozhin started his career as a Russian oligarch in food services. This ex-convict grew his one restaurant and catering businesses into a lucrative enterprise. Because of his ties to the food business, he became known as “Putin’s Chef”.
Prigozhin's catering business served as a way to funnel money into his less than legal activities, including the funding of his private mercenary army, known as PMC Wagner.
Up until recent events, Moscow used the Wagner Group at its discretion and had served as a way for Putin to have plausible deniability for the unsavory acts of this paramilitary group. Prigozhin is known to be extremely loyal to Putin, a quality that Putin greatly values.
In previous months, Prigozhin has had open and fierce disagreements with the Russian Defense Minister, General Sergei Shoigu and the Commander of Russian Forces in Ukraine ,General Valery Gerasimov.
“We’ll hand over our positions, ammunition, everything including dry rations, to the troops,” i.e., the Russian army. Without missing another opportunity to insult the military, he said he would leave them two of his fighters in case things get “too hard,” Prigozhin said, as he was quoted by The Guardian.
The rift between Prigozhin and Russian military top commanders had reportedly been ongoing for years, ever since Russia and Wagner involvement began in Syria.
In Ukraine, Prigozhin blames military leadership for not providing adequate supplies to his fighters and actually firing on his mercenaries. He vowed to retaliate with force, inferring that his forces would “destroy” any resistance they would meet. This claim was denied by Russian military leadership.
Prigozhin appeared to have “had enough” and decided to act. We will look into his actions shortly, since it is the reason for this report.
PMC Wagner
Wagner is a private mercenary group made up of approximately 50,000 fighters. The group made its public appearance in 2014. It was founded by Dmitry Valeryevich Utkin, a former Spetsnaz commander, callsign “Wagner".
Despite Spetsnaz’s elite status they have been reportedly decimated by fighting in Ukraine, suffering devastating losses. Some Wagner operatives are ex-Spetsnaz. Approximately 10,000 are contractors and 40,000 are criminals released from prisons in order to fight for Wagner. They have proved to be among the most “effective” fighting forces used against the Ukrainian military.
Mercenary groups are illegal in Russia but since Wagner registered as a company in 2022, they can skirt around this legal issue. Their new headquarters is in St. Petersburg. The BBC has quoted Dr Samuel Ramani, of the Royal United Services Institute, saying that Wagner “is openly recruiting in Russian cities, on billboards, and is being named in Russian media as a patriotic organization."
Besides Ukraine, they have participated in armed actions in the Middle East and are very active throughout Africa. For example, The Independent , has reported that Wagner has been accused of committing human rights abuses in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Mozambique. War crimes of Wagner fighters include rape, torture, looting of homes and resources, civilian targeting and executions. The group is also believed to be working for the Burkina Faso government against an Islamist insurgency.
What Caused Prigozhin's Rebellion?
As previously stated, Prigozhin has openly expressed his displeasure with Russian military command, particularly Shoigu. Russian military leadership wants Prigozhin to sign a contract to bring Wagner under Russian Military control. In Prigozhin’s view, this was completely unacceptable.
On June 23, 2023, Prigozhin took his heavily armed mercenaries on a trip back to Russia. They marched eastward and took over Rostov-on-Don. Rostov-on-Don is the largest city in southern Russia. With a population of over 1 million, it is the capital of the Rostov region that adjoins parts of eastern Ukraine. It is 1075 kilometers (686 mi) southwest of Moscow.
The rebels also took over the city of Voronezh.This brought them even closer to Moscow. Prigozhin had said that his men were within 125 miles from the Russian capital. For a brief time it was reported that they took over a nuclear storage facility at “Voronezh-45”.This could have led to catastrophic events.
On their way to the Russian capital, Wagner fighters did not meet any major opposition from the Russian military When they arrived in Rostov-on-Don many Russians welcomed them. Shortly after arriving at Rostov-on-Don, Prizoghin left.
Analysts presumed that Prigozhin left because of a deal facilitated by a longtime friend Aleksander Lukashenko. Lukashenko is the leader of Belarus which is essentially a vassal state of Russia. He is seen as the longest standing dictator in Europe and a Putin loyalist. Why did Putin need Lukashenko to facilitate anything? Putin is, after all, the one that likes to control the narrative.
An agreement was reached with Prigozhin, wherein he would relocate to Belarus, the criminal case against him would be dismissed, and Wagner fighters would be integrated into the military through contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, The New York Times reported.
The events of Wagner's rebellion revealed weaknesses and disagreement within the Russian military and in Moscow. It also reflected Prigozhin's belief that Russia did not go to war to protect itself from a dangerous Ukrainian regime.
“The war was needed ... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn’t for demilitarizing or de-Nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star,” Prigozhin said, as quoted by the BBC.
Prigozhin’s statements appeared to take a pro-Western position rather than follow suit with the words of a notorious Putin ally that has been representing Russia’s interests all over the world. Because It has been noted that no other military leadership would have allowed such insubordination, or the act of speaking out against Russia’s military leadership by its field commanders, analysts question why Putin allowed insubordination from Prigozhin.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, for one, offered Vladimir Putin his forces’ full support against Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and promised to use harsh methods if necessary. Kadyrov called Prigozhin’s behavior "a knife in the back" and urged Russian soldiers not to give in to any “provocations.”
A Coup of the Government or Russian Military Mutiny?
It's unlikely that this was an actual coup attempt. If it was a coup, it wasn’t planned out very well. Regardless, it ended about as fast as it began.
It was more like a “mutiny” against Russian military leadership rather than a coup against Mother Russia. Prigozhin was adamant this was a "march for justice", and not a coup. One reason Prigozhin claimed he stopped was to prevent any shedding of Russian blood. While he has disdain for many of Putin’s other oligarchs,his quarrel was not with the Russian people.
We know that Prigozhin never called Putin out by name. Wagner receives a great deal of money from Russian government contracts as well as from its illicit activities throughout the world. Despite the group's income it is unknown whether they could sustain an actual coup.
For all the control that Putin exerts over Russia, Putin did not deal with Prigozhin's “insubordination” as it was happening. Is Prigozhin the only oligarch that can act this way? We know that Putin has “allegedly” eliminated opposition to his rule over the years. Why not now, “in the moment”? This issue may still be addressed by Putin, as he cannot appear to be weak.
There is still some support for Putin in Russia, and among his allies. However, these events have revealed weaknesses in Putin’s armor.
Does Prigozhin command the same support within Russia as Putin does? While that is unlikely, there are videos of him being cheered on by Russian citizens as he left Rostov-on-Don.
Putin has been criticized for not stopping the mutiny. Perhaps he couldn't. Putin’s most recent statements have been more critical about those that marched towards Russia. Bloomberg News reported that Putin is calling those that marched against Russia “traitors”. His speech seemed full of conspiracies and disinformation. Nothing new there.
You can listen to Putin's latest speech at this link:Statement by the Russian President on events related to the Wagner Group
Prigozhin's Exile
He will likely now be viewed by many as a traitor to Russia. There are conflicting opinions as to Prigozhin's future.
Prigozhin had not confirmed his acceptance of the “deal” brokered by Lukashenko. Until today we have not heard from him. He has just posted an audio statement that doesn’t provide all the information analysts are looking for. Time will tell.
Wagner's Status
Wagner's fate remains to be seen. According to NPR reports, Wagner forces that took part in the march would also not be prosecuted, and Wagner forces that didn't participate would sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Shoigu and Gerasimov
Shoigu and Gerasimov’s fates are unknown at this stage.
According to a June 25 report by The Moscow Times, Shoigu's whereabouts are unknown, but there were rumors last night he had been fired or even detained. More than 12 hours after Wagner fighters halted their march on Moscow, there is still no sign of Shoigu or Gerasimov.
As this situation has many moving parts, Spectrum News 1 just reported that Shoigu recently made an appearance and was seen inspecting troops. This does not mean that his future is secure.
A Gift to the West?
Probably. This action has revealed fractures in the Russian military and regime. Russia's allies, despite their continued support may feel that Russia is now less stable, and Putin is not in full control.
Zelensky's Benefit from the Fallout
Possibly. Zelensky made it clear that these events highlight Putin’s weakness, Time Magazine reported. This would be an ideal time to lobby for, and receive, more support. Zelensky also stated that Putin is afraid of Wagner. It's safe to assume that Ukrainians welcome more trouble for Putin.
United States Denies Involvement
American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials, revealing that Yevgeny Prigozhin planning to launch military operations against high-ranking Russian defense officials, The New York Times reported. This information was shared by officials who are knowledgeable about the situation.
Despite current conspiracy theories , the US government denies any part in the mutiny. U.S. President Biden was adamant that his government did not want to give Putin any excuse for blaming his internal troubles on the West.
Final Thoughts
Is this story over? That is unlikely. Will Putin face a coup from other generals? Will Wagner call in its fighters from around the globe? Will those in senior positions within Russia seize this opportunity to oust Putin sensing an opportunity?
Prigozhin may have given up control of a nuclear storage facility but now he is allegedly in Belarus. Russia previously deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus. Lukashenko is a weaker leader than Putin.
Putin will have to show strength. He will have to show that he is still in charge, or at least give the impression that he is still in control. That's what authoritarian despots do.
The coming days or weeks will most probably reveal more developments in this already volatile region, a region that has implications for the stability of the entire world.